Looking Ahead: Michigan Basketball, 2014-2015

By Jacob Lipnik on May 1, 2014

It’s official: Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary, and Nik Stauskas are all leaving Michigan early for the NBA. For fans worried about the departure of three integral pieces in Michigan’s Elite Eight and Big Ten Championship team from the past season, I understand. Seeing them go pro is tough to swallow when you consider that, with all three back, Michigan could have potentially been the preseason number one team in the country, and at the very least somewhere in the top three to five.

But remember, we had this same feeling just one year ago. When Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. decided to leave school early to pursue NBA dreams, fans said the exact same thing: “We could’ve been number one next year if they had come back.”

Look what happened without them; Michigan had one of the most successful seasons in program history, winning a Big Ten championship and coming this close to another Final Four appearance. So while Stauskas, McGary, and Robinson leaving is sad, Michigan basketball will be fine without them. In fact, they might not even miss a beat. Let me explain why.

Michigan’s roster for next season is just about set. Stauskas, Robinson, and McGary are gone, as well as big men Jon Horford (who transferred for his final season of eligibility) and Jordan Morgan (who graduated). Besides potentially picking up a late recruit or a last-minute transfer, who would probably not get significant minutes anyway, we know who will be suiting up for the Wolverines next season. So how can they be as good next season with so much attrition? Looking at the team, position by position, there will be an upgrade at almost every spot.

First up is point guard: Derrick Walton Jr. will be coming back for his sophomore season and sticking with his spot as the starting point guard. After an up and down season, with a few notable bright spots, look for Walton to make a big leap in his second year in the program, similar to Trey Burke and Darius Morris before him. Michigan has a knack for developing young point guards, and Walton—a top recruit coming out of high school—has arguably more potential than either Burke or Morris ever had. He will be one of the top point guards in the Big Ten next season, and a big reason why Michigan will be a contender once again. He will also get help from his backup, Spike Albrecht, who will be a junior with a wealth of experience, as well as the ability to control the offense and knock down big shots. With these two coming back next year, the point guard position will be a major improvement for Michigan.

Shooting guard/Small Forward (Wings): In Michigan’s system, these two positions are basically interchangeable. And the wings for Michigan, believe it or not, might be even better overall next season despite losing Big Ten Player of the Year Nik Stauskas. His loss will certainly be felt, but there is plenty of talent there to replace him. Caris LeVert, after a breakout sophomore campaign, still has plenty of room to improve if he puts on more weight and works on his shot. He has even been tabbed by Jeff Goodman of ESPN as a potential preseason All-American, an honor even Stauskas didn’t earn. Joining him on the wing will be sophomore Zak Irvin, a former Mr. Basketball in Indiana and 5-star recruit. After being just a role player his freshman season, coming in and knocking down threes now and then, expect him to make a jump in his game similar to Stauskas and LeVert. With more freedom and a larger role in the offense, he will prove himself to be more than just a three-point specialist. Finally, rounding out the wing position for this team will be incoming freshmen Kameron Chatman, a highly touted recruit from the West Coast, and the more under the radar, unheralded recruit Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman. Chatman has built a reputation as a solid shooter and a crafty passer, both keys to making an immediate impact at the college level and in John Belein’s offense, while Abdur-Rahkam is already 20 years old and known as a feisty defender, that’s something this Michigan team needs badly. This group of wings will keep Michigan’s offense at an elite level and will push its defense to be much better than in the past few years.

Caris LeVert will be key to Michigan remaining atop the Big Ten next season

Bigs: This is where things start looking shaky for next season, and that might be an understatement. Michigan has lost all of its top three big men, leaving almost nobody on next year’s roster with significant experience playing power forward or center. The man with the most—scratch that, only—experience playing as a big man at Michigan is Max Bielfeldt, an undersized center who has seen the court only sparingly in garbage minutes or when other players ran into foul trouble. He certainly has room to improve for next season, but will probably once again only give spot minutes off the bench at either the 4 or 5. The man who people are counting on to really hold down the center position is Mark Donnal, a redshirt freshman who has gotten tons of hype in recent weeks. Even though he will be a bit undersized, he is exactly what John Belein loves: a kid who can battle for rebounds, but also step out all the way to the three point line and drain shots. He could do great things for this Michigan team next season, and he might need to for the Wolverines to have a shot at a Big Ten championship of a run in the NCAA tournament. After Bielfeldt and Donnal, the rest of the burden for the bigs lies on the shoulders of freshman. Ricky Doyle, an incoming center, looks like he could one day be a solid starter, but to come in right away and contribute solid minutes might be far-fetched. At power forward, incoming freshman D.J. Wilson, who saw a big jump into the top 100 of the final Rivals recruiting rankings of the year, might be able to come in and make a big impact immediately—let’s hope. Otherwise, Kameron Chatman, who recently was measured at 6’8” and around 215 pounds, might need to contribute some minutes as a big man as well. Overall, the bigs for Michigan next year will be extremely young and extremely inexperienced. They are no doubt the weak point of the team—but if they can step their game up, grow up fast, and prove some people wrong, they could help Michigan remain the class of the Big Ten.

The loss of Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III leaves Michigan with an inexperienced front-court—but their youth will have a chance to shine

Some of the predictions above—the improvements of certain returning players and the potential of certain recruits—definitely ride on optimism. But with what John Belein and Michigan have done in the past few years, that optimism is warranted. Michigan has the potential to be as good or better at every position next year, except in the front court, with a solid bench to boot. Some people are down on Michigan with the departure of a few key players, but I’ve learned never to count out John Belein and his Michigan teams. I believe when it’s all said and done, Michigan will finish in the top four of the Big Ten, make the NCAA tournament with ease, and go to at least the Sweet 16.

 

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